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Personal Transportation – Hard Choices, Great Opportunities
By Neil Peterson | November 23, 2008
When I founded FlexCar (now ZipCar) a number of years ago, I did so because I wanted to help Americans reduce their reliance upon foreign oil, fight global warming and make our cities more livable. Today, the challenges of volatile energy prices and global warming continue to shape the debate about the future of personal transportation. The only thing that has changed is the urgency with which we must address them.
Though oil prices have fallen dramatically from their summer highs (click on the chart at right), the very real potential of deflation means that though prices may be lower, they will be paid for in more valuable dollars. Also, our breather from rocketing oil prices will no doubt be short lived due to finite world supplies, declining production worldwide and increasing costs of extracting the oil that is available. This will inevitably force a re-thinking of personal driving habits (as well as home energy use) by consumers.
Global warming has become an especially urgent priority. A recent study published by scientists at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory showed that annual carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels and manufacturing worldwide have grown 38 percent since 1992. The OECD recently predicted that if we don’t act quickly, by mid century we could see overall warming increase from 1.7 – 2.4 degrees C. This could lead to species extinction on a massive scale, creates problems with our agriculture and food production, as well as raise sea levels and threaten coastal populations.
Law makers in Washington will be paying more attention to managing the national carbon footprint in the years ahead and this is pushing US car makers to experiment with new fuel technologies at a level and pace not seen since the early days of the auto industry. According to data gathered by New York-based intellectual property law firm Heslin Rothenberg Farley & Mesiti, car companies are actually leading when it comes to the number of patent filings on “cleantech” filed in the first quarter of 2008. The alternative fuel technologies include:
- Gas – electric hybrids
- Plug-in hybrids
- Lithium-ion and other battery power
- Bio-fuels
- Clean diesel
- Compressed natural gas
- Fuel cells
- Compressed air
- Hydrogen
So far, only gas-electric hybrids and bio-fuel powered cars have made serious market headway. But the pace of innovation is accelerating and that bodes well for our transportation future.
Another factor that is promising for the future of personal transportation is the globalization of the auto industry to include countries in the developing world. These car manufacturers have different economic incentives and perspectives, as well as demanding new customers to serve. This is leading to more innovation, which will migrate back to the developed countries over time. The Los Angeles auto show is now bigger and more important than the Detroit auto show, illustrating how the initiative in shaping the future of personal transportation has shifted. Someday the center of the automotive world may shift further, to China, India or elsewhere in the developing world as our transportation priorities change.
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Topics: Management, Politics, Sustainable living, Transportation | No Comments »